How to Evaluate AI Companies
A data-driven approach to separating AI substance from hype in 5 steps.
1
Check the BS Gap
The BS gap is your first filter. It shows the difference between what a company says (hype score) and what they actually deliver (reality score).
BS Gap Interpretation:
- Negative (-5 or lower): Under-promises, over-delivers. Rare but excellent signal.
- 0 to +5: Honest messaging. Marketing aligns with reality.
- +5 to +10: Slight exaggeration. Normal marketing spin.
- +10 to +20: Moderate overhype. Proceed with caution.
- +20 or higher: High BS. Marketing far exceeds substance.
2
Analyze Event Quality
Not all events are equal. High-quality events show actual work and progress.
✅ High-Quality Events
- • GitHub releases with code
- • Research papers on arXiv
- • Product demos (not just announcements)
- • Open-source contributions
- • Benchmark results
- • Developer documentation
❌ Low-Quality Events
- • Vague press releases
- • "Exploring AI" announcements
- • Executive quotes without substance
- • Repackaged old news
- • Generic partnerships
- • Marketing without product
Tip: Companies with 10+ high-quality events in 7 days show real momentum.
3
Verify Community Sentiment
Community sentiment reveals what developers and users actually think, not just what marketing says.
Where to Check:
- Reddit: r/MachineLearning, r/LocalLLaMA, r/artificial
- HackerNews: Comments on product launches
- GitHub: Issues, stars, forks, activity
- Twitter: Developer reactions and critiques
- Discord/Slack: Developer community discussions
Sentiment Scoring:
- 80%+: Strong positive sentiment, trusted by community
- 60-80%: Generally positive, some criticism
- 40-60%: Mixed sentiment, divided community
- Below 40%: Negative sentiment, community concerns
4
Review Recent Trends
Trends reveal trajectory: is a company improving, stagnating, or declining?
✅ Positive Signals
- • BS gap decreasing (hype and reality converging)
- • Event frequency increasing
- • Sentiment improving over time
- • Rank climbing steadily
❌ Warning Signals
- • BS gap increasing (hype outpacing delivery)
- • Event frequency dropping
- • Sentiment declining
- • Rank falling
5
Compare Against Peers
Context matters. A company might look good in isolation but mediocre compared to peers.
What to Compare:
- Overall Score: How do they rank vs competitors?
- BS Gap: Are they more or less honest than peers?
- Event Count: Are they shipping faster or slower?
- Sentiment: Do developers prefer them or competitors?
Pro Tip: Use the comparison tool to see side-by-side analysis of any two companies.