Tesla pushes Optimus humanoid robots into mass production, aiming to outpace car revenue

Tesla’s production line for Optimus has moved from prototype to serial manufacturing, with the company installing dedicated assembly stations at its Fremont and Austin factories, according to a Mix Vale report. The shift signals that Tesla intends to treat the humanoid as a revenue‑generating product rather than a research showcase, positioning it alongside the Model Y and Cybertruck in the company’s supply‑chain hierarchy. The report notes that the robots will be built using the same AI‑driven vision and control stacks that power Tesla’s Full Self‑Driving (FSD) software, allowing the same neural‑network architecture to coordinate locomotion, object recognition, and task execution across both vehicles and bots.

Elon Musk has repeatedly hinted that Optimus could eclipse automotive sales, and the latest public statements reinforce that ambition. In a recent interview, Musk told OpenTools that the “V3” version of Optimus will be unveiled “probably in Q1,” and that the company believes the robot, together with its autonomous driving platform, will unlock a new, high‑margin revenue stream (OpenTools). He framed the robot as a “labor‑replacement” technology that could be deployed in warehouses, manufacturing floors, and service industries, where the cost of human labor is rising faster than productivity gains. By leveraging Tesla’s existing AI hardware—its custom‑designed Dojo training supercomputer—and the same silicon‑level integration that underpins its vehicles, the firm expects to achieve economies of scale that keep unit costs competitive with traditional industrial automation solutions.

The financial implications are stark. Reuters reported that Musk’s broader compensation package, which hinges on Tesla hitting a $1 trillion market cap, now includes milestones tied to Optimus revenue, suggesting that the board views the robot as a core growth engine (Reuters). While Tesla has not disclosed projected sales figures, the company’s internal forecasts, as referenced by Mix Vale, indicate that Optimus could generate more annual revenue than the automaker’s car business within the next few years. This projection rests on the assumption that the robot will be sold at a price point high enough to offset its manufacturing expense while achieving volume sufficient to dwarf the roughly $80 billion in automotive sales Tesla reported in 2023.

Analysts caution that the path to mass‑market adoption is fraught with technical and regulatory hurdles. Wired highlighted Musk’s desire for “strong influence” over the robot’s development, noting that the lack of an established standards framework for humanoid safety could delay large‑scale deployments (Wired). Moreover, The Verge observed that Optimus made a “scene” at a recent robotaxi event, drawing attention but also underscoring the gap between a functional prototype and a reliable, commercially viable product (The Verge). Nonetheless, Tesla’s vertical integration—controlling everything from silicon chips to software updates—offers a competitive advantage that could accelerate time‑to‑market compared with rivals that rely on third‑party components.

If Optimus does achieve the revenue upside projected by Tesla’s leadership, the company’s business model would shift dramatically from a vehicle‑centric focus to a diversified AI‑hardware platform. Such a transition would not only diversify earnings but also insulate Tesla from the cyclical nature of auto sales, aligning it more closely with high‑growth sectors like logistics and advanced manufacturing. The coming quarters will reveal whether the robot’s mass‑production rollout can translate the company’s AI ambitions into tangible cash flow, or whether the optimism surrounding Optimus will remain a headline‑driven narrative without substantive financial impact.